Regional Transportation Funding Problems Keep Getting Bigger
In a sobering revision of the 25-year Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) at yesterday's Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) meeting, MTC staff explained that the elimination of the State Transit Assistance (STA) fund and much lower than expected sales-tax revenues forced the planning body to significantly revise down its projections for operational spending and expansion projects (PDF). The MTC revised down expected revenues by $8 billion (even despite over $3 billion in expected stimulus funds) and announced that BART's extension to San Jose is running a cool $1.5 billion over budget.
Most operators anticipated the crunch brought on by the elimination of the STA fund and have adjusted as best as possible, with AC Transit already raising fares and the MTA discussing a fare hike, service cuts, and additional hiring freezes. The $4.5 billion in lower sales-tax revenues (TDA funds in transpo-speak), will make transit operations even more difficult.
The Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) in Santa Clara County and SamTrans in San Mateo County will see some of the worst hits proportionate to their size. The first graph below shows the overall expected operational deficits over 25 years, assuming current conditions with no positive change in STA or TDA funding over that period:
Light blue is shortfalls for the major operators prior to the new TDA and STA forecasts made available yesterday. Red is the current expected shortfall, should there be no change to expected revenues.
