Declining Traffic: How Will It Affect U.S. Transportation?

TheDecember 2008 figures (the latest available) show that motor vehiclemiles traveled were down about 3.6% for 2008 as compared with 2007.

Three thoughts:

1.It is remarkable that miles traveled continued to decline quite sharplyeven in the last part of 2008. During that period, gas prices weredeclining dramatically -- which creates a strong incentive to drivemore...

2. This continued drop in miles driven dramaticallyupsets transportation planning as it has been done over the past 50years in the U.S. All road and highway planning is done on theassumption that travel miles will continue to increase at a 2-4% annualrate as they have done (on average) through the entire 20th century.

Now-- even after the U.S. recovers from the current economic difficulties-- predictions are for miles driven to grow less than 1% annually.

Mostroadprojects are planned using 10, 20, and 50-year traffic forecasts. Evenjust 10 years out, the difference between 1% and 3% annual growth rateis very large. Twenty years out it's a 2:1 difference.

Are we planning our roads for twice the traffic that will really exist in 20 years?