AC Transit, Muni, Caltrain Predict Service Collapse Without More Funding

In February, BART released an alarming report outlining the service cuts it would need to make if Bay Area voters don’t pass a transit funding measure in November. Now, several other service providers are speaking up about future cuts without more funding, and the picture they paint is dire. 

Muni: Cutting 20 bus routes

The trains, trolleys, and buses operated by Muni give San Franciscans more than half a million rides every day. In a city with notoriously limited parking, public transit is essential. 

Muni was already forced to make cuts in 2025. If it doesn’t get more funding, it faces a budget shortfall of $307 million in the fiscal year starting this July. Waymos and rideshares can’t take the place of missing buses; more private cars on the city’s already-crowded streets would lead to permanent gridlock.

To close the shortfall without additional funding, Muni would need to:

• Cut 20 bus routes
• Start limited late-night OWL service at 9 p.m. and run it until 6 a.m.
• Reduce or cut historic trolleys and cable cars
• Reduce the frequency of trains and buses
• Lay off up to 2,000 employees

AC Transit: 16% service cuts

AC Transit operates buses in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, providing around 150,000 rides daily. The 2025 realignment was implemented to boost ridership by delivering better frequency with improved connections for more reliable bus lines. Closing a looming $50 million operating deficit would require more painful reductions that undermine their new strategy to grow ridership.

AC Transit hasn’t yet announced which bus routes might be cut, but it could be forced to reduce service by up to 16.4% and lay off 300 employees.

Caltrain: Closing 30% of stations

Caltrain provides transportation through the heart of Silicon Valley, running the route from downtown San Jose to downtown San Francisco, with connections to BART, Amtrak, and many local bus routes. It serves an area that’s home to more than one-third of the Bay Area’s residents, providing around 42,000 rides daily.

The operator recently replaced its diesel train fleet with electric trains, providing faster and more reliable service. But this improvement could be undone by annual projected operating deficits of $75 million.

Without additional funding, Caltrain will need to:

• Reduce frequency of service
• Eliminate weekend service
• Stop service at 9 p.m.
• Close 30% of its stations
• Cut some service segments

It doesn’t have to happen

These predictions are probably too optimistic. Bay Area transit systems are symbiotic, with riders often using multiple operators or routes to get to their destinations. If BART is forced to make drastic cutbacks, fewer people will ride AC Transit, Muni, and Caltrain, sending all the systems into a downward spiral. 

It’s essential to put a citizen-led funding measure on the ballot for November’s election. If you haven’t already signed the petition to get the measure on the ballot, please sign it. Volunteers are collecting signatures at local farmers markets, BART stations, transit hubs, and events. Better yet, join the volunteers and help us gather the 200,000 signatures we need to put a measure on the ballot to fully fund Bay Area transit. 

A version of this post appeared on the Transform blog.